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A Gathering StormAmerica could be caught asleep and find itself awakened and staring into the gun of a hostile power.by Darris McNeelyThe price of distraction can be high-higher than expected. America has been distracted for a long time by the scandals of the Clinton presidency which have resulted in his impeachment and Senate trial. In the meantime, the world has been continuing on a dangerous course. The consequences for America could be serious. Last July, a report was issued by a select committee of former military, intelligence, and government officials. Called "The Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States," the committee was chaired by Donald Rumsfeld, a former United States Secretary of Defense. The mandate of the Commission was to "assess the nature and magnitude of the existing and emerging ballistic missile threat to the United States." The Commission examined the potential of several modern nations to launch missiles and weapons of mass destruction upon America. Also studied was the ability of nations to acquire needed technology from other nations to launch such weapons. Biological and chemical weapons and the means of delivering them were also studied. What the panel concluded carries staggering consequences for the U.S. The nine member committee was unanimous in concluding the following points: 1. Concerted efforts by a number of overtly or potentially hostile nations to acquire ballistic missiles with biological or nuclear payloads poses a growing threat to the United States, its deployed forces, and its friends and allies. These newer, developing threats in North Korea, Iran and Iraq are in addition to those still posed by the existing ballistic missile arsenals of Russia and China, nations with which we are not now in conflict but which remain in uncertain transitions. The newer ballistic missile-equipped nations' capabilities will not match those of U.S. systems for accuracy or reliability. However, they would be able to inflict major destruction on the U.S. within about five years of a decision to acquire such a capability (10 years in the case of Iraq). During several of those years, the U.S. might not be aware that such a decision had been made. 2. The threat to the U.S. posed by these emerging capabilities is broader, more mature and evolving more rapidly than has been reported in estimates and reports by the Intelligence Community. 3. The Intelligence Community's ability to provide timely and accurate estimates of ballistic missile threats to the U.S. is eroding. This erosion has roots both within and beyond the intelligence process itself. The Community's capabilities in this area need to be strengthened in terms of both resources and methodology. 4. The warning times the U.S. can expect of new, threatening ballistic missile deployments are being reduced. Under some plausible scenarios-including re-basing or transfer of operational missiles, sea- and air-launch options, shortened development programs that might include testing in a third country, or some combination of these, the U.S. might well have little or no warning before operational deployment (Executive Summary of the Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, July 15, 1998). America Asleep The commission recommended that the practices, analysis and policies that depend on extended advance warning of hostile threats be reviewed and changed to reflect a changed environment. In other words, America could be caught asleep and find itself awakened and staring into the gun of a hostile power. Of the nations mentioned in the report, China is one to watch closely. It is the dominant Asian power whose future contains many uncertainties. Although its relations with the U.S. have improved, there are a number of potential conflicts which could have serious implications. In 1996, China fired missiles near Taiwan in what some perceived as a form of intimidation during that country's presidential elections. The U.S. has long backed the independence of Taiwan despite the mainland's desire to absorb the island back into the larger China orbit. China's desire to exercise a regional influence in Asia sometimes brings out sharp protests toward other powers (such as the U.S.), which still have the means to influence other nations like Korea or Japan. China's ultimate role in the Asian financial crisis is also undetermined. China is a significant exporter of the type of weapons addressed in this report. It has transferred nuclear technology to Iran and Pakistan. There is no reason to expect the sale of such technology to cease in the future. Why would a nation sell such destructive technology to another where there is no obvious control over how it will be used? The answer is because it meets the strategic interests of a nation. Often, much is gained in return but in the end it is done to seek to control and influence the balance of power. If one nation lacks technology needed to protect itself against its neighbor, then the acquisition of such weapons evens the playing field and supposedly acts as a deterrent. Experience and history show, however, that once weapons are deployed they inevitably are used. No Early Warning The biggest problem facing the U.S. is the erosion of an early warning of the peril from one of these nations. Intelligence systems are limited in what they can detect, and when combined with efforts to conceal missile activity, the advance notice needed to take defensive action may not be available. Consider this scenario: Iraq invades Saudi Arabia, seizing control of the vital oil fields and cutting off supplies to the west. America responds with diplomatic and military action, but before retaliation can occur Iraq sends notification that weapons of mass destruction are on board a ship off the eastern coast of the United States. New York, Boston and Washington are targeted. They are willing to trade Baghdad for any one of the three. America's ability to deploy a missile defense against any such threat is negligible at this time. The nine members of this select committee concluded that within as little as three years several potentially hostile nations could have the capability of holding the country hostage and crippling its security. Once again, the price of distraction can be very high. The Watchman and the Coming Sword The prophet Ezekiel was made a watchman to Israel to trumpet a message of warning when a sword was seen coming upon the land. "Son of man, speak to the children of your people, and say to them: 'When I bring the sword upon a land, and the people of the land take a man from their territory and make him their watchman, when he sees the sword coming upon the land, if he blows the trumpet and warns the people, then whoever hears the sound of the trumpet and does not take warning, if the sword comes and takes him away, his blood shall be on his own head'" (Ezekiel 33:2-4). Today, these warnings of peril upon the land are coming from secular leaders who have stood on the city walls and peered into the horizon. What they see approaching is cause for a lifting of a trumpet and the sounding of a call to action. Whether the current U.S. leadership can respond is yet to be seen. WNP |
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Origin of article "A Gathering Storm"
Keywords: nuclear weapons ballistic missiles Iraq Iran China North Korea
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