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Russia's Dangerous Nuclear ArsenalIn some ways, we are closer to nuclear war than we were in the 1950s and '60s. Then, at least, the nuclear forces were well controlled and well paid.by Mario SeiglieRussian military officers stared wide-eyed at the glowing image on their radar screens: an incoming missile on course to hit Moscow in 15 minutes.... One buzz went to the three nuclear code briefcases assigned to President Boris Yeltsin and his top two military officials. The officer carrying Yeltsin's case rushed to the President and flipped it open. On an electronic map inside, they saw a bright dot over the Norwegian Sea. Beneath the map was a row of buttons, offering a menu of attack options on targets in the U.S. On military bases across Russia, red lights flashed and horns blared, alerting the troops in charge of the country's strategic nuclear weapons to get ready to use them." Perhaps this may sound like another plot out of a Hollywood blockbuster movie-but it isn't. It actually happened back on January 25, 1995. How are we all still alive? Let's read on, as Newsweek reported in an article titled, "Nuclear Disarray" in the May 19, 1997, pages 24-26. "Yeltsin and his military commanders, linked by phone, waited to hear whether an attack had been confirmed. About 12 minutes after the mystery missile soared onto the radar screens, military analysts could see that it was not heading for Russian territory. It turned out to be a Norwegian scientific rocket sent aloft to observe the aurora borealis. The Norwegians had dutifully notified the Russian embassy in Oslo, but the word was never relayed to the military. 'For a while,' says Sergei Yushenkov, a member of the Russian parliament's Defense Committee, 'the world was on the brink of nuclear war.'" Mix-ups Common Such catastrophic mix-ups are becoming more common. The same article mentions because of the lack of maintenance of their nuclear arsenal, "the Russians might wrongly think they were under attack from the West and fire their rockets. This danger has greatly increased because the Russian early—warning system is not what it used to be. It has lost major radar stations in the new nations of Ukraine, Latvia and others. Some of its satellite-tracking stations have gone to Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan. The high command is now partially blind, which increases its apprehensions, produces false alarms and makes good decisions harder." Defense Minister Igor Rodinov goes even further. The article continues: "Last year [1996], the nuclear strategic forces received 10.5% of the funds needed for maintenance. The result, he predicts, is that, 'We may lose the entire system.' The links between radar and headquarters, the computer management of missiles and the physical security of the warheads could all break down." To add to their woes, troops of the Strategic Nuclear Forces (SNF) are earning an average of $100 to $200 a month—when they are paid. The same article reports, "One major, who has served 24 years in the SNF and will retire in six months, did not see a paycheck for four months." Another officer commented, "We're living in poverty. That's all you need to know." The Newsweek article concludes: "The potential is there for some form of nuke-napping-grabbing weapons for ransom or nuclear blackmail-or sales to rogue states or terrorists, or unauthorized launches by renegade commanders. Some Russians even fret about a nuclear civil war. If a region in Siberia were to declare its independence, a retired senior officer in Moscow speculates, 'The entire missile force in the area might cut itself off from the chain of command and control and get re-programmed to be able to launch at will.'" False Sense of Security Meanwhile, the world is being lulled into thinking everything is peachy-when it's not. Another Newsweek article of June 2, 1997, mentioned the current mood in the U.S.: "The country has rarely felt so secure from the threat of war. The bomb silos on the Great Plains are on their way to becoming curious museums; to today's children, the three little triangles that denote bomb shelters might as well be an odd form of teenage graffiti" (page 4). Yet, in some ways, we are closer to nuclear war than we were in the 1950s and '60s. Then, at least, the nuclear forces were well controlled and well paid. At that time there were only two superpowers eyeing each other. Now there are a host of nations, some with terrorist backgrounds that could detonate a nuclear bomb. Russia still has an estimated 22,000 nuclear warheads and the U.S., 12,000. The year 1998 has been even worse for Russia's economy, and the troops have not seen their lot improved. On the other hand, the breakdowns in the strategic nuclear system were so alarming in 1997 that, with the urgings of the U.S., some improvements have taken place in 1998 to increase the security aspects of the nuclear arsenal. "Not all the news from Moscow is bad," reports Newsweek, in the May 25, 1998, edition. "Russia has sharply upgraded security at more than 30 sites containing fissile material." Yet, the rest of the problems still remain. How long will the underfed and underpaid forces go on without something giving? What about the deficient radar systems? Will they continue to deteriorate as funds become scarcer? No one knows, but the dangers of mix-ups, accidents or thefts are certainly real. Nuclear Threat is Real Some think that since Russia's warheads (and the U.S. is presently trying to do the same with China) are no longer pointing towards the U.S., the world is much safer. Unfortunately, the difference between having them aimed or not is just a matter of a minutes. The computer memory in the missiles retain their former targets, and they can be reprogrammed very quickly. As long as Russia remains unstable economically, politically and militarily with such a large nuclear arsenal, the rest of the world cannot breathe a sigh of relief-especially the U.S. From what has occurred so far, it appears the world's dangerous nuclear arsenal will continue to grow, especially as other nations, such as India and Pakistan, join the nuclear club. Just recently, the U.S. announced it would upgrade and modernize its nuclear missile systems so they would be in optimum condition beyond the year 2025. Despite its economic weakness, Russia and the other nations of the nuclear club will attempt to do the same. It appears as we enter the 21st century that the world will be chock-full of high-tech nuclear weapons, and they will be far more of a problem as more unstable nations gain access to nuclear technology. What we read in Matthew 24:22 certainly seems to be borne out by the facts told of our present and future generation: "And unless those days were shortened, no flesh would be saved; but for the elect's sake those days will be shortened." This scenario also brings to mind the issue of unawareness and thinking everything is safe, which the Bible mentions will occur on the earth before the coming of Jesus Christ. "But take heed to yourselves, lest your hearts be weighed down with carousing, drunkenness, and cares of this life, and that Day come on you unexpectedly. For it will come as a snare on all those who dwell on the face of the whole earth. Watch therefore, and pray always that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that will come to pass, and to stand before the Son of Man" (Luke 21:34-36). Let's not be lulled into a false sense of security. Things are really not improving much on the nuclear front, especially as more nations join the nuclear club. Others, such as Iran, Iraq and Libya-not to mention terrorist groups-are waiting in the wings. Things could heat up very quickly! WNP |
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