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The India/Pakistan Weapons ConundrumThe more nuclear powers, the more other nations feel it absolutely necessary to develop and add weapons of this nature to their defense arsenals.by John Ross SchroederDateline: London "Despite long-standing intelligence monitoring, India's five nuclear tests on land 13 May, 1998 took the world by surprise" (Strategic Comments, June, 1998). So much for stability in an uncertain age. Two Eastern nations-India and Pakistan-threatened the peace and well-being of the world with their recent nuclear tests and mutual saber rattling. Now there is no real end to the nuclear threat in sight. Clearly, if a larger number of countries develop or gain access to these nightmare weapons, the world will become a much less-safe place. The West has every reason for limiting the nuclear spread. Yet Libya, Iran, Iraq and possibly North Korea, are seen as nations with the worrying capacity to gain nuclear arsenals in the not-too-distant future. A Sobering Press Briefing This writer recently attended a London press briefing at the Foreign Press Association where Dr. Gerald Segal, Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, analyzed the recent India/Pakistan developments in the light of the overall nuclear threat to humanity. Gerald Segal lamented the harm done to the discernible progress that had previously been made in limiting the nuclear threat in the world. He pointed out that drastic cuts in such weaponry had already occurred in some very prominent countries (the U.S.A., Russia, Britain) and also said that South Africa and Brazil had apparently pulled out of the atomic race altogether. Dr. Segal also spoke of these most recent tests in terms of "a wakeup call to us all," and reminded the journalists in attendance that "if we get it wrong," there is an increased threat to human survival on this planet. The Director of Strategic Studies shocked some of us when he firmly stated that China was the number one reason for India possessing and developing nuclear weaponry. Particularly in the long term India is far more afraid of China than Pakistan. Many international observers have already labeled China as the next superpower. National prestige is also a big factor in Indian thinking. According to Strategic Comments, "India wants to be seen to have a hydrogen bomb both because these devices are vastly more destructive than fission bombs (as used in Hiroshima in 1945) and for reasons of national prestige. "The possession of such weapons would clearly raise India above Pakistan, and-so Indians think-place them in the club of the five recognized nuclear-weapons states [The United States, Russia, Britain, France and China]. These countries are also permanent members of the UN Security Council, to which India believes it has a right to belong" (op. cit.). A Growing Number The number of nuclear powers is growing. Professional experts have already recognized and accepted the existence of five such nations and now, according to Dr. Segal, in reality its "five plus two." Some believe that there are more, Israel being one of those countries. The more nuclear powers, the more other nations believe it absolutely necessary to develop and add weapons of this nature to their defense arsenals. That's just common sense. This factor considerably weakens world community control over the nuclear arms race. Economic pressures in Pakistan are adding to the fear that she will share her nuclear secrets with nations like Iraq and Iran, for a hefty price of course. Western sanctions which could greatly increase Pakistani economic hardship might drive her into making sales to dangerous and unstable regimes. It's a "Catch 22" conundrum. The West believes sanctions are an important deterrence to further nuclear activity, but if overly applied they could easily backfire. It's a delicate balancing act. Ideally, we should not be continually faced with these kinds of dilemmas. Somewhere we have gone wrong as a species. The Essential Biblical Perspective The nuclear threat is not as divorced from the Bible as some people might imagine. Though 2,000 years old and more, the Scriptures are very much up to date and applicable to our modern world. They specifically warn us that an unprecedented time of universal distress would be coming on planet earth. This period of world-jarring chaos is referred to in several biblical books, written at various times by different authors. For instance, consider the book of Daniel (ca. 535 B.C.) written by a great prophet of God. He wrote: "At that time Michael [an archangel] shall stand up, the great prince who stands watch over the sons of your people; and there shall be a time of trouble, such as never was since there was a nation, even to that time" (Daniel 12:1). Until mid-20th century, mankind could not have really grasped the horrendous portent of these words. Yet they are rendered even more ominous by the later warnings of Jesus Christ Himself. "It will be a time of great distress; there has never been such a time from the beginning of the world until now, and will never be again. If that time of troubles were not cut short, no living thing could survive; but for the sake of God's chosen it will be cut short" (Matthew 24:21-22, New English Bible). In Summary Summing up, this is a world filled with unexpected dangers and new and threatening trends. Humanity is in jeopardy. We all have to make sure we are on our guard. "Watch therefore, and pray always that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass, and to stand before the Son of Man" (Luke 21:36). About the Weapons Crisis... "India: "Its surprise tests threaten the global test ban treaty and point out the gap in monitoring nations" - Peter D. Zimmerman, a nuclear physicist (Los Angeles Times). India & Pakistan: "Eyeball to eyeball, two proud nations on a race to disaster" - Lawrence Freedman, a professor of war studies (The Daily Mail). "How can we expect India and Pakistan to eschew nuclear weapons if the U.K. and France have them?" - Edward Mortimer, Financial Times columnist. "Failure to solve the latest nuclear arms row will fuel the nuclear ambitions of others" - Gerald Segal, a director of strategic studies (The Sunday Times). "India's surprise nuclear tests shake a sense of security and could spark a new arms race" - Johanna McGeary (Time magazine). The India/Pakistani War Threat "Despite Western intelligence services' uncertainty about details, both New Delhi and Islamabad have clearly demonstrated the capability to deploy nuclear weapons on attack aircraft and ballistic missiles, and are likely to do this in the near future. Neither country's leadership is aiming at nuclear war, but their poor intelligence services, relatively inefficient military communications and deeply ingrained mutual paranoia mean that the possibility of catastrophic mistakes is very real" (Strategic Comments, June, 1998). WNP |
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