May 2001 Vol.4, No. 4

Contents Doctor's Firsthand Account of South African AIDS Crisis   by Cecil E. Maranville French Intellectuals See Germany as Potential Threat    by Joel Meeker Reversal of Fortune for Two African Nations    by Melvin Rhodes To Tell the Truth    by Darris McNeely In Brief...World News Review    by Cecil E. Maranville, Ken Martin and Darris McNeely This is the Way...What's on the Front Page of Your Mind?    by Robin Webber In Brief... World News Review Radical Changes in EU Constitution Would Create a Strong Parliament Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder will push for a radical restructuring of the European Union's governing institutions to create a centralized EU government with a two-chamber parliament and expanded powers, a spokeswoman for his party said on April 29. Mr. Schroeder's plan, if accepted in an EU constitutional convention in 2004, would lay the foundations for what the most ardent integrationists see as an eventual United States of Europe. The proposal is meant to advance a postwar dream of European political unification and reflects Berlin's efforts to carve a greater German leadership role in Europe, EU analysts said. But the notion of a unified Europe, which inevitably would dilute the authority of national governments and parliaments, remains a flash point of deep division within the 15-nation bloc and would take years to implement. The leadership of the governing Social Democratic Party, which Mr. Schroeder heads, outlined its blueprint for Europe's future in an internal party document, the newsmagazine Der Spiegel reported in its April 30, 2001, edition. Grit Auerswald, spokeswoman for the party, confirmed the report Sunday and said that the party's national board would review the paper on May 7 and present it at the party's annual convention in November. The German vision is likely to receive a hostile reaction from Britain, which has not yet joined the 12-nation common currency and exhibits a popular distrust of a European "superstate." Analysts said that Mr. Schroeder's plan was likely to go beyond the aims of the French political elite, who want to retain a greater degree of national influence but who also support a future EU constitution in some form. The Danish, Swedish and Finnish governments also are likely to give it a cool reception, EU analysts said. Spain, too, will not likely endorse this idea. The April 28th edition of The Economist featured a piece about Elmar Brok, a German member of the European Parliament. Mr. Brok's ideas of European unification echo those of the German chancellor. He is calling for a constitutional convention that would draw up a new constitution by the year 2003, a full year ahead of schedule. He talks eagerly of a "new treaty of Rome to seal the process started at the first one, in 1957." Sources: International Herald Tribune and The Economist. "Economic Earthquake" in Japan Soon to Rattle World Economy? George Friedman, an expert on international affairs and intelligence, recently compared the internal forces of the Japanese economy to the tectonic plates that make up the earth's crust. These plates move very little for long periods, in spite of monumental pressures on them. When they finally do move, an earthquake results. Similarly, warns Friedman on his Strategic Forecasting Web site, the relatively stable Japanese economy is subject to "a sudden rendering (that) turns everything upside down." Japan's finance minister told the country's parliament on March 9, "Japan's fiscal condition is approaching a state of collapse." Because Japan's deficit is already huge, the government has few options that it can exercise. Unemployment has risen to 4.9 percent-a high figure for Japan. Mitsubishi Motors Corporation is projected to lose $2.1 billion this fiscal year, a projection 79 percent worse than what Mitsubishi offered just last November. Mazda, another Japanese car manufacturer, recently announced that it will shift its compact-car production from Japan to a Ford plant in Spain. Japanese stocks have plunged to a 15-year low, representing a 67 percent decline from their high in 1990. How significant is the Japanese economy? It's the second largest in the world. Economic columnist Mort Zuckerman puts it into perspective: "A financial disaster of the size implicit in their latest numbers would send huge waves everywhere. Japan is the largest economy in Asia. The spending power of its 127 million residents exceeds that of the 1.8 billion inhabitants of East and Southeast Asia. It is also the world's largest gross and net international lender, with over $2.5 trillion outstanding" ("Japan on the Brink," March 15, 2001). Clearly its financial troubles have the ability to disrupt global financial markets. Dr. Friedman warns, "Japan's economy is so close to the edge it will not take much to nudge it over." He made the comment in the context of an editorial about why U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is concerned about reducing U.S. interest rates too rapidly. The world's largest economy and the world's second-largest economy are inextricably linked. Lower interest rates in the United States stimulate its domestic economy at the same time as they weaken the U.S. dollar abroad. Fewer Japanese products would be imported into the United States because they would be more expensive. Fewer Japanese products would be sold in Europe because American exports would be more competitive than the Japanese ones. These market fluctuations occur all the time, but Friedman says, "a drop in cash flow due to declining exports could be the straw that breaks the camel's back." Sources: Times Newspapers Ltd., Strategic Forecasting LLC, CNN, Reuters. Floating Killing Clinics The Dutch government is currently debating euthanasia legislation. If a patient is "in continuous, unbearable and incurable suffering," if he or she is "aware of medical alternatives" and has "demanded a second professional opinion," the patient meets the criteria for legal euthanasia under the pending legislation. The bill says, "The request to die must be made voluntarily, independently, persistently and only after careful consideration by a patient judged to be of sound mind." The law is expected to pass the Dutch upper house. Philip Nitschke, a doctor and euthanasia campaigner, is poised to take advantage of the law as soon as it is passed. He plans to establish a floating euthanasia clinic in international waters off the coast of Australia. By purchasing a Dutch-registered ship, he can establish a legal clinic that circumvents Australian law, which prohibits euthanasia. Does that seem strange? Another equally strange and disturbing development is a movement headed by Dutch doctor Rebecca Gomperts. Dr. Gomperts is currently raising funds to establish a floating abortion clinic that would operate in international waters off the coasts of nations whose laws forbid abortion. Given the volatile opposition to abortion, extensive measures are being pursued to secure the ship against sinking by abortion opponents. It makes one wonder what comes next-perhaps a floating cloning clinic that will circumvent EU and U.S. laws, which forbid cloning humans? Source: Guardian Unlimited. Foot-and-Mouth Seen as Serious Threat to U.S. Agriculture The United States, which has not had a case of foot-and-mouth disease since 1929, has instituted extensive precautionary measures against infection from overseas, but is preparing as if an outbreak in the United States were a certainty. Besides Britain, cases of the disease have been confirmed in the Netherlands, France, Ireland, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, South Korea and Taiwan. International air travelers arrive back in the United States to find that they're required to have their feet sprayed with a disinfectant by airport inspectors. U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) official Bruce Braughman said, "We are certainly treating it like it's a probable likelihood." FEMA was one of several U.S. federal agencies that met on April 18 to outline plans on how to deal with an outbreak of foot-and-mouth. Other agencies included the Agriculture Department, the U.S. Army, the Coast Guard, the Interior Department, the Food and Drug Administration-even the CIA. Meanwhile, intelligence operators at the Department of Agriculture are working on a vaccine for foot-and-mouth. Looking beyond natural causes, the intelligence community is concerned that the disease may have been started as an act of bio- or "agro-terrorism." Foot-and-mouth disease is easily released with no threat to the terrorist, and it spreads by itself. Agro-terrorism isn't new, according to Peter Chalk, a Rand policy analyst who has studied the subject. "Germany...had an operation...in 1917 here in the United States (by which they) infected draft animals that were going to be sent to Europe. The Soviet Union had about 10,000 scientists and technicians working on anti-agriculture agents" (UPI, "Livestock Plagues Could Be Bio-Terror Attack," April 5, 2001). The fact that U.S. livestock is largely concentrated in a few regions makes U.S. agriculture an attractive target for the agro-terrorist. As Britain knows all too well, the economic consequences could be disastrous. Sources: USA Today, UPI, Reuters. Germany: Microsoft Products a Security Threat? Germany's defense and foreign ministries are reported to have made the decision to stop using software from U.S. software giant Microsoft Corporation. The reason for the decision: Germany's security. German authorities received information that the U.S. Secret Service has the capability to decode all Microsoft products and data files generated using those products. The German defense ministry plans to use decoding technology made only by German companies, either Siemens AG or Deutsche Telekom AG. Security concerns are also the reason for the cancellation of German foreign ministry plans to use satellite-videoconferencing technology with its embassies. Source: Der Spiegel, March 19, 2001. Europe Prepares for War A former German admiral has laid out reasons why NATO and the European Union are putting themselves on a war footing. In a long article titled "Who Are Our Enemies?" Vice-Admiral Ulrich Weisser has explained the so-called threats which Europe and NATO now face. "The threats of yesterday," he says, "have been replaced by a multiplicity of risks which have a different quality." In the foreground are ethnic, religious and nationalistic rivalries which can lead to "the collapse of state order.... "It is not the main task of the German army to be stationed in places but instead to be ready for action." There are dangers of "unpredictable regimes," "organized crime" and "cyber-terrorism" attacking the world economic information system. Germany is at particular risk because it is "a leading industrial and exporting nation and thus extremely dependent on the outside world and interlinked with the international community." Military force, to put it bluntly, must protect Germany's interests as an exporter, but must also ensure freedom of movement for trade and the supply of raw materials. To be sure, all these problems cannot be solved by armed intervention-which is why "conflict prevention" is required. Source: The European Foundation/Intelligence Digest Issue No. 113/February 8-21, 2001. Contributors: Cecil E. Maranville, Ken Martin and Darris McNeely wnp

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