June 2001 Vol.4, No. 5

Contents New Proposal for Europe's Future   by Paul Kieffer All the News That Fits-Into One Minute    by Melvin Rhodes Day Care Debate: More Than Aggressive Babies   by Cecil E. Maranville In Brief...World News Review    by Cecil E. Maranville, Darris McNeely and John Ross Schroeder This is the Way...Dancing With Death    by Robin Webber In Brief... World News Review Indonesia Unravels Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid has failed to retain the loyalty of a majority of the People's Representative Council. As a result, the parliament voted overwhelmingly-by a 365 to 4 margin-May 30 to initiate impeachment hearings. Wahid's ouster, which most likely will come before the end of the summer, will send his supporters into a frenzy; indeed, many have pledged to fight to the death in support of the president. As the military and police focus their efforts on restoring stability in the capital and island of Java, separatist forces in Aceh, Borneo and Sulawesi will increase their attempts to secure independence. Wahid's government is likely to fall sometime this summer, no later than autumn. Two important events have shifted the ground under Wahid's feet. First, he persistently undercut the military that once guaranteed the power of the president. Second, Wahid played so many political factions against one another that now none will stand with him. Already the military is warning civilian leaders, cracking down on separatists and arresting opponents. Yet Indonesia's great secret is the weakness of its security forces. For decades, they ruthlessly held the republic together. Today, however, intelligence indicates that the 300,000-man army is a mere shell of its former self. Civil unrest and recent deployments have eroded discipline; field units ignore rules of engagement and even open fire on other forces. An outbreak of violence across the country will make it impossible for the army to hold the nation of 17,500 islands together. Separatist movements in the provinces, allied with local business and military interests, will move to seize advantage. Upheaval in the outermost islands will pose problems for energy companies and will threaten to spill refugees into Australia, Papua New Guinea and Malaysia. Governments in these neighboring nations will be forced to consider action. The security of the sea lanes that link the Indian and the Pacific Oceans will become uncertain, as will the security of U.S. and other naval forces that pass through these narrow bottlenecks of ocean. Source: Stratfor Global Intelligence Report, May 23 and 30, 2001. Water Shortages Worsening "One Billion Asians Could Be Parched in 24 Years, Say Experts" sounds like the title of a science-fiction novel. Actually, it's the title of an Agence France Presse report on a meeting of world experts on water supply who met recently in Honolulu, Hawaii. Here are some highlights of the report: Asia has the lowest per capita availability of water and, by the year 2025, nearly one billion people there will not have adequate access to water. One-third of the world population is living in countries experiencing medium water stress. It looks as though the bulk of the developing countries will spend the next 50 years struggling to provide safe drinking water and sanitation to their burgeoning urban populations and enough irrigation water to maintain high levels of food production needed to provide improving diets. If all of the earth's water fit in a gallon jug, available fresh water would equal just over a tablespoon-about half of 1 percent of the total. The supply crunch could also revive old-and introduce new-water-borne diseases and lead to micro-pollutants from pharmaceuticals such as synthetic hormones getting through existing treatment facilities. International conflicts over water are likely to consume more and more of our time. Even "relatively privileged" countries such as the United States and Canada are not going to be trouble-free over the next 50 years. At the dawn of the 21st century, more than a billion people in the developing world lacked safe drinking water. In a related report, scientists using pictures from a NASA satellite estimated that Lake Chad would be reduced to nothing more than a puddle in a few years. It has shrunk approximately 95 percent over the past four decades. Once the fourth-largest body of water in Africa, it may not be able to continue to supply water to the countries it formerly bordered-Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Cameroon. Sudan and the Central African Republic, which rely on rivers from the lake's drainage basin, may also face shortages. A steady drop in rainfall amounts has caused the shrinkage of the lake for nearly 40 years, accompanied by a commensurate increase in demand for water to irrigate crops. Sources: AFP; Times Newspapers Ltd. Marriage Failure and Television-Any Connections? According to a May 24, 2001, press release from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), 43 percent of first marriages in the United States breakup within 15 years. The press release referred to a recent report issued by the CDC, which also shows that one in three first marriages end within 10 years and one in five within five years. Could there be any connection between this trend and the increasingly immoral content of TV programming? Cal Thomas gave some good advice in his May 8th column, "Must-Sleaze TV": "Turn off the TV or, better yet, get rid of it. Try dinner table conversation, meet your neighbors, read good books, rent old movies or, if the TV remains, block out all but the really good things. Even network executives might take notice and stop fouling the airwaves, thus raising the standard of popular culture for all." Sources: CDC; L.A. Times Syndicate. (to top) America's Greatest Problem "America's Greatest Problem: Not Crime, Racism or Bad Schools-It's Illegitimacy" is a chapter title in a bold book offered by Larry Elder, titled The Ten Things You Can't Say in America. Elder, an American black, reprinted a letter from a 30-year-old in his May 24th syndicated column that illustrates some of the long-term effects of this problem. The letter was a chilling presentation of the state of affairs for the American black male. Written on the theme, "all of my friends are dying," the author described 10 of his friends as follows: "one is dead, nine are alcoholics, five are regular drug users, five are unemployed, none have college degrees and everyone has (the latest style of) clothes." He continues, "My friends and I were once 15-year-old boys drinking forties (40-ounce bottles of beer). Can we, who are now grown, say something to the kids who are on the same path? Can we maybe do things differently inside of the home where our kids are watching our coping skills? ... I do not have all of the answers...but I do know all of my friends are dying." Source: "More Dads, Less Crime," by Larry Elder, 2001 Creators Syndicate. News About Homosexuality and AIDS Robert L. Spitzer was once a champion of the homosexual community in the United States, because his was a pioneering voice in the early 1970s to have the American Psychological Association remove homosexuality from its list of mental disorders. Dr. Spitzer recently earned the anger of homosexuals for announcing the results of a study which shows that gay people are able to turn straight if they really want to do so. On the AIDS front, a terrifying report announced on June 1 shows that 32 percent of young black homosexual men in the United States are infected with the AIDS virus. U.S. Surgeon General David Satcher expressed his alarm: "I'm very concerned about the pockets of epidemic that we're seeing. Thirty percent-that's approaching Botswana's level of infection." AIDS infections in the United States, once thought to be on the way to being controlled, are now approaching the levels that they were 20 years ago, when the disease was first discovered. Officials speculate that the fact that young homosexuals have no memory of the seriousness of the plague when it began, coupled with their false assumption that AIDS is easily treated with medications, has led to the explosion in infections. Typical of the "official response," many voices are calling for increased funding of programs that educate the public on the dangers of AIDS. Currently, the CDC provides about $400 million for state and local AIDS prevention programs. That is, the money goes solely for education, not for treatment. In a related development, the British Public Health Laboratory Service announced on June 1 that the number of newly diagnosed HIV positive cases in the UK has reached an all-time high-14 percent higher than the previous year's figures. It's the highest infection rate since testing became widely available in 1985. The BBC reports that the worldwide infection rate last year was 50 percent greater than was predicted by the World Health Organization 10 years ago. About 36 million people now live with HIV or AIDS. Most cases are in Africa and Asia. Sources: The Washington Post (David Brown); AP (Malcolm Ritter); BBC. Military Developments Around the World Under the leadership of a new prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, Japan may change its constitution, allowing it to create a standing army. It already has one of the world's largest and most modern armed forces, including one of the largest military-industrial complexes, but its current constitution forbids a standing army and the right to make war. So, will Japan rearm? Increasingly, the answer appears to be yes. Russia, thought to be far behind U.S. advancements in space and satellite technology, may have found a way to reenter the space race. On April 4, the Russian Aeronautics and Space Agency (RASA) signed an agreement with the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co. that would enable Russia and the European Union to cooperate on space ventures. Their joint venture could seriously compete with the U.S. space program. Not that U.S. industry is left out, for Boeing is a partner with the RASA! "The American space program will be the long-term loser," projects Stratfor. Source: Stratfor. England: a Nation in Religious Decline The overall percentage of the population in England attending church has dropped from 11.7 percent of the population in 1979 to 7.5 percent in 1998. Merseyside (the Liverpool area), the Channel Islands (Guernsey and Jersey) and the Isle of Wight are still 10 percent or above, but every other county in the country is below that figure. These new figures (statistics for 1999-2000 apparently are not yet fully available) have been compiled and analyzed by Peter Brierley, former cabinet office statistician for the British government. In terms of raw attendance, the survey spotlights South Yorkshire as the least devout county in England with a figure of 4.5 percent. The highest attendance is in Merseyside (12.1 percent), which has the largest concentration of Roman Catholics in England. The Catholic auxiliary bishop of Liverpool, Vincent Malone, explained the national decline in terms of people's growing feeling of self-sufficiency. He said: "Everything seems to be within our own control. We don't have the same need of dependency or the need to look beyond ourselves." We don't seem to rely on God anymore. Note: This survey does not include Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, but the vast majority of the population of the United Kingdom is in England. Source: The Sunday Telegraph. Italy Goes Right Italy's wealthiest citizen has a new job-prime minister of the country. In its May 13th general election, the electorate handed the job to Silvio Berlusconi, at the same time as it gave his conservative alliance a clear majority in both houses of parliament. In sharp contrast to the widespread anti-American sentiment common to leaders in the EU, Berlusconi quickly declared himself proud to be considered a friend and partner of the United States. That's only part of his lack of orthodoxy. Having made his wealth in the media industry, he is inclined to an entrepreneur's philosophy and is a natural enemy of big government. His campaign promises included: cut taxes, reduce Italy's bloated government, fight crime, raise pensions, and-believe it or not-to resign from office if he fails to make good on the majority of these promises! They may be difficult to meet, considering the fact that Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio is 110 percent. This ratio runs more than twice the standard the EU members have agreed upon. Needless to say, Berlusconi's business-friendly approach is unpopular with the socialists in his country as well as in the rest of the EU. However, his mandate-if he can continue to hold to power for a significant portion of his five-year term-positions him to deliver on his word. Because he is philosophically more in line with the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain and Austria, he would conceivably align Italy with them, which portends a potential slowdown in the German-led push for a federated Europe. Neither Berlusconi nor Italy is to be taken lightly. He is the fifth-richest man in Europe. Richard Chesnoff of the New York Daily News compares his election to sending a combination of Rupert Murdoch and Bill Gates to the White House. Italy's economy is larger than those of Britain and France, second only to Germany's. Moreover, Italy's economy is the fifth largest in the world. Of course, one does not achieve such a measure of success without acquiring enemies along the way. Opponents within the country accuse Berlusconi of corruption. And it's not hard to imagine that political rivals in the EU will encourage any potential fractures in the five parties that constitute his parliamentary partnership. Nonetheless, Italy's prime minister-elect brings a new dimension to the European equation. Sources: Stratfor, New York Daily News, Eric Margolis. Contributors: Cecil E. Maranville, Darris McNeely and John Ross Schroeder. wnp (to top)

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