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Could a Greek Tragedy Bring Down the Euro?In the last few weeks the euro has declined in value as fears over Greece's debt problems fueled international speculation. Could Greece's problems lead to the demise of the common European currency?by Melvin RhodesForty years ago, international currency speculation was largely confined to third world countries that kept the official value of their own currencies high, leading to a black market trade in money in poorer parts of the world. Today, the buying and selling of paper money is the biggest legal business conducted in major financial capitals around the world. The change was due to the adoption of a floating currency system in the wake of the collapse of the sterling area (countries who used the British pound as their currency or pegged their own to the pound) and growing public debt in the United States. What this means is that currency speculation has become big business, resulting in rising volatility in the markets. In the first half of February, this seriously affected the eurozone, the 16 nations that use the 10-year-old common currency, the euro. Speculation triggered by a fiscal crisis in Greece forced the value of the currency down. "Yet the idiosyncrasies of the eurozone should not distract us from the general nature of the fiscal crisis that is now afflicting most western economies. Call it the fractal geometry of debt: the problem is essentially the same from Iceland to Ireland to Britain to the US. It just comes in widely differing sizes" (Niall Ferguson, "A Greek Crisis Is Coming to America," Financial Times, Feb. 10, 2010). While Harvard historian Niall Ferguson correctly highlights the fact that Greece's problems will spread throughout the Western world, eventually even including the United States, others are pointing to the fact that Germany is key to resolving the Greek tragedy. Students of Bible prophecy have long known that "ten kings" (political leaders) will form a resurrected Roman Empire prior to the second coming of Jesus Christ. "The ten horns which you saw are ten kings who have received no kingdom as yet, but they receive authority for one hour as kings with the beast. These are of one mind and they will give their power and authority to the beast" (Revelation 17:12-13). While the European Union has been of great significance in uniting European countries, the 27-member EU cannot be the same as the final "ten" that revive the power of ancient Rome. The Greek financial crisis could be of great significance in moving Europe forward to its final destination, at exactly the same time that the English-speaking nations see their power reduced by their own fiscal crisis. Greek crisis result of success"Simply put, Europe faces a financial meltdown," wrote Marko Papic and Peter Zeihan ("Germany's Choice," Stratfor, Feb. 8, 2010). "The crisis is rooted in Europe's greatest success: the Maastricht Treaty and the monetary union the treaty spawned epitomized by the euro. Everyone participating in the euro won by merging their currencies. Germany received full, direct and currency-risk-free access to the markets of all its euro partners... [Germany's] efficiency has permitted its exports to increase steadily both as a share of total European consumption and as a share of European exports to the wider world. Conversely, the eurozone's smaller and/or poorer members gained access to Germany's low interest rates and high credit rating. And the last bit is what spawned the current problem." Some of the poorer European countries have long had problems balancing their budgets. Under rules laid down by the European Central Bank (ECB), they were not permitted to overspend by more than 3 percent a year. In fact, they could not even join the euro until they complied with that requirement. It turns out Greece faked its finances, gaining entry into the eurozone through deceit. Other countries like Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy did well for a long time, but their finances have been badly affected by the worldwide recession. The five countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) are even referred to as the PIIGS, which only adds to the negativity currently surrounding these nations. Twenty years ago, all of these countries could have worked their way through their own fiscal dilemmas by letting their currencies slide in value, but they no longer have that option now that they are part of a currency union controlled by the German-dominated ECB. The capital of the EU is Brussels, but Germany is the richest member of both the eurozone and the European Union. The country is the key to solving the current problem, either by refusing to help and perhaps forcing the five out of the euro zone or by bailing them out, which would give Berlin even greater clout over the whole of Europe. The Stratfor report continues: "There is no doubt Germany could afford such a bailout, as the Greek economy is only one-tenth of the size of Germany's. But the days of no-strings-attached financial assistance from Germany are over. If Germany is going to do this, there will no longer be anything 'implied' or 'assumed' about German control of the European Central Bank and the eurozone. The control will become reality, and that control will have consequences. "For all intents and purposes, Germany will run the fiscal policies of peripheral member states that have proved they are not up to the task of doing so on their own. To accept anything less intrusive would end with Germany becoming responsible for bailing out everyone. After all, who wouldn't want a condition-free bailout paid for by Germany? "And since a euro-wide bailout is beyond Germany's means, this scenario would end with Germany leading the EU hat-in-hand to the International Monetary Fund for an American/Chinese-funded assistance package. It is possible that the Germans could be gentle and risk such abject humiliation, but it is not likely. "Taking a firmer tack would allow Germany to achieve [its goal] via the pocketbook...But this policy has its own costs. The eurozone as a whole needs to borrow around 2.2 trillion euros in 2010, with Greece needing 53 billion euros simply to make it through the year. Not far behind Greece is Italy, which needs 393 billion euros, Belgium with needs of 89 billion euros and France with needs of yet another 454 billion euros. "As such, the premium on Germany is to act—if it is going to act—fast. It needs to get Greece and most likely Portugal wrapped up before crisis of confidence spreads to the really serious countries, where even mighty Germany's resources would be overwhelmed. "That is the cost of making Europe 'work.' It is also the cost to Germany of leadership that doesn't come at the end of a gun. So if Germany wants its leadership to mean something outside of Western Europe, it will be forced to pay for that leadership—deeply, repeatedly and very, very soon. But unlike in years past, this time Berlin will want to hold the reins." Will Berlin once again dominate Europe?It's ironic that, after two attempts in the last century to dominate Europe by force, Germany is increasingly dominating the continent economically. The current crisis gives Berlin an opportunity to emerge as the clear leader of the new united Europe and shows a clear continuity from the first half of the 20th century. Another Stratfor analysis pointed out that in Germany "factions within the CDU [Christian Democratic Union, the dominant party of the ruling coalition] are becoming cognizant of the opportunity the Greek imbroglio presents. Even though most German politicians would refuse to acknowledge it, Mitteleuropa (albeit in a demilitarized sense) must be on everyone's mind these days in Berlin. "Mitteleuropa was an early 20th century idea that looked to carve out a political and economic sphere of influence for Germany within Central Europe, one that...would be able to counter the then Russian Empire to the east and the British Empire to the west. It was later perverted by Nazi Germany in World War II to include depopulating Jewish and most Slav and Roma presence in the proposed geographical area. However, in its pre-World War I original edition, it 'merely' sought a 'sphere of influence,' not unlike what the Monroe Doctrine sets up for the United States in Latin America. "Fast-forward to 2010 and you have most of the EU expectantly gazing at Berlin, hoping that it saves Europe from its current crisis" ("Germany and Iran: Reconciling History," Stratfor, Feb. 11, 2010). Chillingly and perhaps prophetically in light of Revelation 17:13, Stratfor concludes with these words: "The most potent analogy here may be that of the Roman Republic. The Roman Senate had provisions by which, in times of emergency (such as when Hannibal threatened at the gates), it could bestow dictatorial powers on an individual. The EU may be nearing such a choice, albeit with the EU in the position of the Roman Senate and Germany playing the role of Caesar. The offer may be too tempting for Germany to ignore. The question is: Will Germany's past continue to torture Berlin and prevent it from assuming its natural sphere of influence?" Germany seems set, and soon, to take a greater leadership role in the European Union, an EU that could push some of its poorer members on the periphery into a secondary role, while a solid core of countries around Germany (10 ?) move forward to form "an ever closer union," one of the stated aims of the Treaty of Rome. Meanwhile, the United States cannot gloatIn the realm of geopolitics, Bible prophecy focuses on the Middle East, the rise of a German-led Europe and the decline of the modern Israelites (especially the English-speaking powers of the United States and Great Britain). While the Greek fiscal crisis looks likely to boost German power, the wider financial crisis seems set to continue to bring down the power of the two English-speaking nations. "For the world's biggest economy, the US, the day of reckoning still seems reassuringly remote. The worse things get in the eurozone, the more the US dollar rallies as nervous investors park their cash in the 'safe haven' of American government debt. This effect may persist for some months, just as the dollar and Treasuries rallied in the depths of the banking panic in late 2008. "Yet even a casual look at the fiscal position of the federal government (not to mention the states) makes a nonsense of the phrase 'safe haven.' US government debt is a safe haven the way Pearl Harbor was a safe haven in 1941. "The International Monetary Fund recently published estimates of the fiscal adjustments developed economies would need to make to restore fiscal stability over the decade ahead. Worst were Japan and the UK (a fiscal tightening of 13 per cent of GDP). Then came Ireland, Spain and Greece (9 per cent). And in sixth place? Step forward America, which would need to tighten fiscal policy by 8.8 per cent of GDP to satisfy the IMF. "Last week Moody's Investors Service warned that the triple A credit rating of the US should not be taken for granted. That warning recalls Larry Summers' killer question (posed before he returned to government): 'How long can the world's biggest borrower remain the world's biggest power?' "On reflection, it is appropriate that the fiscal crisis of the west has begun in Greece, the birthplace of western civilization. Soon it will cross the channel to Britain. But the key question is when that crisis will reach the last bastion of western power, on the other side of the Atlantic" ("A Greek Crisis Is Coming to America"). One week after Niall Ferguson's article, a report on the Financial Times' front page showed that the Greek crisis may already be reaching U.S. shores. "Foreign demand for US Treasury securities fell by a record amount in December as China purged some of its holdings of government debt. China sold $34.2 [billion] in US Treasury securities during the month, the US Treasury said on Tuesday, leaving Japan as the biggest holder of US government debt with $768.8 [billion]" (Alan Rappeport, "Foreign Demand Falls for Treasuries," Feb. 16, 2010). Clearly, China is afraid the United States may not be able to honor its debts, just as Greece and others can't honor theirs. The economic crisis among Western nations is pushing events toward fulfillment of key Bible prophecies leading to the end of this present age. Jesus Christ's warning to "watch" for the appearance of an end-time superpower combination of church and state should take on greater clarity in light of these events. These are not random geopolitical events. The puzzle of end-time prophecy is coming into focus one piece at a time. WNP
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