March/April 2002 Vol.5, No. 3 Contents America's Growing Isolation by Melvin Rhodes Restoration: A Dangerous World by Darris McNeely Debate Over Islam Continues: Is It a Religion of Peace? by Cecil E. Maranville The Last Battle for the British Empire by John Ross Schroeder Generations in Crisis by Doug Johnson Disastrous Weather By Graemme Marshall In Brief...World News Review by Ken Martin and Jim Tuck This Is the Way... Forgiving the Unforgivable by Robin Webber March/April '02 WNP Main Generations in Crisis The watershed events of Sept. 11, 2001, changed our world. But what specific changes should we be noticing? by Doug Johnson Offer the opinion that our world will never be the same after Sept. 11, 2001, and you won't find much disagreement. But it's one thing to note that nothing will ever be the same again, and quite another to delineate just how things have changed. And perhaps the hardest task of all would be to project the impact of these events forward into the months and years just ahead of us. Christ told His disciples, "Watch therefore, and pray always that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that will come to pass, and to stand before the Son of Man" (Luke 21:36). The context of this familiar passage shows that it ties in directly to our individual spiritual condition--which becomes critically important in times of crisis. Where do we stand with God? The Savior of all mankind said something else about noticing events, and He said it to a group of His greatest critics, the Pharisees and Sadducees. It's recorded in the first few verses of Matthew 16. They were apparently quite knowledgeable about local weather patterns, and could tell if a storm was brewing or if calm conditions were to be expected. But they were abysmally ignorant of some far more important signs. "Hypocrites!" He charged, "You know how to discern the face of the sky, but you cannot discern the signs of the times" (verse 3). That's where we come in. Are we able to discern the signs of the times in which we live? God shows the basic framework of the future by way of biblical prophecy, and as readers of this publication know very well, it leads up to the return of Jesus Christ. While we can't know the "day and hour" (Matthew 24:36) of that momentous event, we can certainly observe the changes in our world and strive to make sense of them by looking at the pattern God shows in His Word. And don't forget that all-important context of Luke 21--what's our spiritual condition? See the future through the past One of the things we can do is look for patterns from the past. Solomon noted, "That which has been is what will be, that which is done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun" (Ecclesiastes 1:9). Earlier, he stated, "One generation passes away, and another generation comes; but the earth abides forever" (verse 4). And then there are these ominous but oddly comforting words: "That which is has already been, and what is to be has already been; and God requires an account of what is past" (3:15). Among today's foremost scholars and authorities on generational trends are William Strauss and Neil Howe. They have authored numerous books and articles and have their own Web site that supplies up-to-date information related to their theories (). They see recurring patterns in the history of the Anglo-American peoples--in fact, the passage from Ecclesiastes 3:15 is quoted on the dedication page of their 1997 book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy (Broadway Books, New York). Strauss' and Howe's basic premise is that Anglo-American history shows four distinct generational types that have repeated, with one exception, for more than 500 years. They refer to these four types as Prophet, Nomad, Hero and Artist. They also posit that the same history shows a four-cycle repeating pattern, which they label the seasons of history--spring, summer, fall and winter. These same seasons can also be called turnings, each with its own historical "mood." "The seasons of history" The first turning, or spring, is a "High." Life seems to be working. The nation is prospering, expanding. No serious threats appear to endanger the foreseeable future. The period from the end of World War II into the early 1960s comprises what Strauss and Howe call "The Great American High." The second turning (summer) is an "Awakening." It's a time of growing unease, with the sense that while the physical may be abundant, the spiritual is empty. People search--sometimes for they know not what. The so-called "Consciousness Revolution" from President Kennedy's assassination in November 1963 through the early 1980s seems to qualify for this designation. The third turning (fall) is an "Unraveling." Society feels like it is coming apart at the seams, even while the economy booms. The "Culture Wars" period from the mid-1980s until...well, at least until Sept. 10, 2001, qualifies. That's the reason for this article. Former presidential advisor Bill Galston called Sept. 11 "the day the 90s truly ended" ("On Politics" by Gloria Borger, U.S. News and World Report, Sept. 24, 2001). That sounds scary! The pattern described earlier calls for another season of history to appear fairly soon--winter, the "fourth turning," described as a "Crisis." Is that where we are now? Is that the significance of Sept. 11 ? Is the public mood shifting again? Are we entering what Strauss and Howe call "the fourth turning"--a new crisis period of history? And of course, the inevitable question from students of the Bible--is it the crisis at the close, the one that will culminate in the return of Jesus Christ in power and glory to rule all nations? Clearly these are important questions to ask. Historically the pattern has been for some kind of "spark" or catalyst to propel the world into another mood, another time, another season. According to the Strauss and Howe model, the last "Fourth Turning" was the Great Depression and World War II. The "spark" was the stock market crash in October 1929. The crisis then ensued, and lasted for 16 years, until Japan's surrender on the deck of the USS Missouri on Sept. 2, 1945. Terrorist attack could spark major shift Was the terrorist attack just such a "spark" or catalyst? In an article posted to their Web site on Sept. 13, 2001, William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote: "Was this terrorist attack a jarring 'spark' in history, of the sort we described (in their book, The Fourth Turning), substantial enough to catalyze a crisis mood? Of course. Will it? That still is open to question--but it could." So how do we know? Again, let's look to the past as a guide. From past crises, certain patterns emerge. As the same two authors wrote in an article that appeared in USA Today on Oct. 29, 2001: "It's not yet possible to say whether this mood shift is permanent or merely suggestive of what's poised to come soon--in other words, whether we're in the Fourth Turning or in the last throes of the third." They then give a checklist to be watching in the next year or so: "Are leaders describing the problem in larger rather than smaller terms, proposing grand solutions, and seeking to destroy (and not just contain) enemies? "Is there a shift away from individualism (and civil liberties) toward community purpose (and national survival)? "Are the old 'culture wars' arguments beginning to feel lame, ridiculous, even dangerous to national unity? "Is the celebrity culture feeling newly irrelevant? Is youth fare becoming less gross and less violent? "Is immigration reversing? Are mobility and openness declining? Is there more nativism in our culture and less 'globalism' in our commerce? "Is there a new willingness to pay a human price to achieve a national purpose? Will we harness technology only to reduce casualties and inconvenience, or also to achieve a total and lasting victory? "Is each generation entering its new phase of life with a new attitude?" There are many more complexities of this theory that could be explored. For example, in what stage of life does each generational type find itself? In past "fourth turnings," a Prophet generation (like the current "Baby Boomers") witnessed its oldest members reaching their mid-60s as the crisis developed. By Strauss' and Howe's theory (slightly different from traditional reckoning), the oldest Boomers will be turning 59 in 2002. A little too soon? Perhaps. Again, we will simply have to watch and see what direction world events take. Some factors history cannot tell us about And then there's one of the most important signs of all--one that William Strauss and Neil Howe do not write about. Christ said in Matthew 24:14, "And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in all the world as a witness to all the nations, and then the end will come." How much more work does God have for His servants to accomplish? It would seem there is still much to do. And yet Paul, quoting Isaiah in Romans 9:28, speaks of God's making a "short work" on the earth. Surely that will be what all His children will say...in about a million years! But getting from here to there is sometimes a puzzle for us. The bottom line is what it has always been: "Watch therefore, and pray always that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that will come to pass, and to stand before the Son of Man" (Luke 21:36). In other words, while we should keep our eyes on what's happening around us, our most pressing need is to pay attention to what's happening inside us. Are we close to God? Do we talk to Him regularly, glean personal instruction from His Word? Do we long for His Kingdom, and are we preparing for our part in it? It can be profitable and helpful to see what professional historians have to say, based on their studies of the past. They can help point out what past patterns have been and help us look for repetitions in today's world. But God's timetable is the one that will eventually supply the answer and ultimately lead us out of the coming Crisis into His Kingdom. And His servants of all generations must be ready--in any season. wnp Send any comments / changes regarding this page to webmaster@churchofgodtwincities.org © 2002-2022 United Church of God, an International Association