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Superdisasters: Growing Weather Danger?
Superdisasters:
Growing Weather Danger?
Recent massive storms have brought dramatic increases in deaths and damages. What's
behind this deadly trend?
by Mario Seiglie
In a dramatic message, the International
Red Cross recently admitted its statistics showed an alarming rise of unusually large
natural catastrophes they call "superdisasters." A combination of horrific
storms and increasing numbers of people and property in harm's way has made recent
years some of the deadliest on record.
"Everyone is aware of the environmental problems of global warming and deforestation
on the one hand and the social problems of increasing poverty and growing shanty
towns on the other," said Dr. Astrid Heiberg, president of the International
Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. "But when these two factors
collide, you have a new scale of catastrophe. At the Red Cross and (Red) Crescent
alone, we have a huge increase in the number of people needing our assistance due
to floods and earthquakes. In the last six years, it has risen from less than half
a million to more than five and a half million" (International Red Cross and
Red Crescent Society press release, "The World Disasters Report for 1999").
A large part of the problem is the increasingly large number of people crowding into
packed, poorly constructed housing in areas at great risk in major storms. When disaster
threatens, there is little infrastructure to evacuate people beforehand or to help
them when it strikes. Consequently the toll of injuries and deaths is much greater
than it otherwise would be.
Dramatic rise in damage
The first chapter in "The World Disasters Report for 1999" ominously
stated: "Compared to the 1960s, the past decade has seen the number of great
natural catastrophes triple, costing the world's economies nine times as much-the
bill for 1998 alone was over US$90 billion . . . From tsunamis and earthquakes
to floods and famines, humankind is increasingly threatened by the forces of nature.
With almost a billion people living in unplanned urban shanty towns, deforestation
wrecking ecological defenses against catastrophic natural events, and global warming
making the forces of wind, rain and sun even harder to predict and counter, the world
is at risk as never before."
A Red Cross press release adds: ". . . The report shows compelling
evidence of a trend towards weather-triggered super-disasters . . . The
developing world will continue to be hardest hit by the cascading effects of human-driven
climate change, environmental degradation and population pressures . . .
Already 96 percent of all deaths from natural disasters occur in developing countries."
Cynthia Long of the U.S.-based Disaster Relief Organization commented on the Red
Cross report: "The report found that human-driven climate change and rapidly
changing socio-economic conditions have and will continue to set off chain reactions
of devastation leading to more behemoth catastrophes . . . By analyzing
the massive hurricanes, droughts, floods and epidemics that plagued the planet last
year, the organization discovered a dangerous trend toward 'super-disasters' . . .
"Declining soil fertility, drought, flooding and deforestation drove 25 million
'environmental refugees' from their land and into vulnerable squatter communities
of crowded cities. Fleeing from weather-devastated homes, the group represented 58
percent of the total refugee population worldwide" ("International Red
Cross Predicts More Global 'Super Disasters,' " Disaster Relief Organization,
June 25, 1999).
Doug Rekenthaler, managing editor of the U.S. Disaster Relief Organization, stated:
"Indeed, the clear-cut lands of the developing world and the negligent environmental
policies that make them that way increasingly are being implicated in natural disasters
around the globe . . . These barren hillsides send rainwater, rocks, and
mud racing into lowland areas where unsuspecting villages often are entombed in their
homes. Thousands of people have died this summer as the result of such flash floods
and mudslides unleashed by monsoon rains" ("Loss of Trees Leads to Worsening
Disasters in Developing World," Disaster Relief Organization, September 22,
1998).
Worst year for natural disasters on record
According to the 1999 Red Cross report, 1998 was the worst year for natural disasters
since it began keeping records (comparable 1999 statistics have not been released).
"More major natural disasters occurred in 1998 than in any other year on record,"
the agency stated.
A representative of the reinsurance company Munich Re, which has monitored the frequency
and scope of natural disasters for a quarter century and advises the insurance industry,
stated: "Comparing the figures for the 1960s and the past ten years, we have
established that the number of natural disasters was three times larger (in 1998).
The cost to the world's economies, after adjusting for inflation, is nine times higher
and for the insurance industry three times as much."
In 1998 an estimated 50,000 people died in more that 700 natural disasters around
the world -- an increase of about 100 catastrophes over 1995, the previous worst year
for natural disasters. Windstorms and floods accounted for 85 percent of the financial
losses. Most of the disasters struck poor and uninsured areas, so insurance-industry
losses were only $15 billion. However, that figure was more than three times the
industry payouts for 1997.
"From deforestation of mountain slopes to development in flood plains and watersheds,"
noted Mr. Rekenthaler, "from poor topsoil management to excessive burning of
fossil fuels, mankind increasingly is becoming an enemy to his own state.
Complicating the picture are data trends indicating the planet is rapidly warming
. . . The World Meteorological Organization announced that 1998 was the
warmest year since records began being kept in 1860. Moreover, 1998 marked the 20th
consecutive year in which global surface temperatures were above normal. Seven of
the hottest years on record have occurred in the past decade . . ."
Even scientists who are skeptical of a global warming trend have admitted the recent
evidence is troubling. "It is very important that we not jump to conclusions
about weather extremes because, in a sense, every year has its extremes," explains
Rob Quayle of Global Climate Lab. "But some events in 1998 just were so striking
that it is obvious something is going on. This definitely was a year characterized
by weather extremes."
Killer hurricanes and tornadoes
For the first time in this century, in September 1998 four hurricanes simultaneously
plowed through the Atlantic Basin. Since 1995 this area has been victim to 41 hurricanes--20
of major proportions--of which the monstrous Mitch reached the maximum category 5
with 180-mile-and-hour winds. It killed at least 11,000 people, caused $5 billion
in damage and left millions homeless. In 1992 Hurricane Andrew caused $30 billion
in damage.
More recently, in 1999 five Atlantic hurricanes reached category-4 status--the largest
number in a season since records began being kept in 1886.
Some are attributing this increase in hurricanes and their intensity to warmer ocean
temperatures. ". . . Sea surface temperatures in some areas are the
warmest ever recorded," comments Rekenthaler. "And those heated waters
are being blamed--at least in part--for this year's (1998) bumper crop of tropical
storms, hurricanes, and ultra-heavy rainfalls in some areas of the world.
"The warmer waters also are being blamed for a massive die-off of coral reefs
around the world, which not only serve as hearth and home to marine life, but also
as natural barriers to tsunamis and other damaging coastal waves. The result of all
this warming is that the storms that roar in from the oceans are larger, are laden
with unusually large amounts of moisture, and are powered by strong winds, all of
which serve to make life miserable for those living in their paths."
Also, the number of twister-related deaths in the United States reached its highest
level in 24 years. In the first half of 1998, three F5 tornadoes, the rarest and
most powerful of the twisters, wrought havoc in their paths.
Some areas wetter, other drier
Kevin Trenberth, director of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center
for Atmospheric Research, recently completed a study that supports the idea that
regions of the earth are experiencing wetter- or drier-than-normal weather.
"As the earth warms," explains Mr. Trenberth, "more and more moisture
is sucked into the atmosphere. There is 10 percent more moisture in the air today
due to increased evaporation. When a storm system picks it up, it delivers that to
the earth much harder than if it wasn't there. At the same time, dry regions are
experiencing longer droughts . . . The warmer temperatures pull tremendous
amounts of moisture into the atmosphere, leaving some areas dry while delivering
a lot of rain to other regions. These droughts, in turn, lead to massive crop failures
and famine. As one example, Texas and Oklahoma suffered through the second worst
drought of their history last summer, resulting in billions in aid to farmers and
ranchers."
This unstable weather pattern can explain the common phenomenon nowadays of having
massive rains in some areas and drought in others. In a recent report, climatologist
Jonathan Overpeck suggested that the megadroughts that periodically occur across
the planet could lead "to a natural disaster of a dimension unprecedented
in the 20th century."
Not all the news is negative. Warmer temperatures have increased the growing seasons
in some areas. A 35-year study of plant life shows warmer spring temperatures arriving
six days earlier and colder fall temperatures being delayed by five days. Plant life
in many areas responds favorably to increases in average temperatures.
As noted above, there is controversy over what actually is causing the weather-related
disasters we have witnessed recently. There is also considerable debate over whether
the earth is indeed in a long-term warming trend and whether humans are contributing
to any increase in average global temperatures. But it is indisputable that disastrous
upheavals have occurred recently--and indications are that they will continue. Superdisasters
and megadroughts are not the normal terms used by sober scientists and agencies such
as the Red Cross, which usually resist sensationalizing the news.
Centuries ago God promised His people they could experience a harmonious balance
sunshine and rain--neither too much nor too little. He declared these ideal conditions
for food production and for safe living conditions to be "blessings," and
indeed they are (Deuteronomy 28:12).
He linked blessings to the behavior of the people, warning them good weather could
not be taken for granted when the populace abandoned His revealed spiritual values.
"I will make your heavens like iron and your earth like bronze. And your strength
shall be spent in vain; for your land shall not yield its produce, nor shall the
trees of the land yield their fruit" (Leviticus 26:19-20).
How much of what is happening in the world's weather is merely natural cycling, and
how much is related to God's warning of the consequences of turning our backs on
Him? It seems clear that in recent years the world is not being blessed with a proper,
life-giving balance of rain and sunshine. Mankind would do well to look to its conduct
and to humbly seek the One who can provide what we lack.
Recommended reading
Are devastating natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes
and floods an indication that we are in the time of the end spoken of by the biblical
prophets? Does the Bible give us specific signs to help us understand when that time
will come--or whether it is here already?
You can learn the answers to these and many other questions in Are We Living in
the Time of the End? Discover what the Bible really says and what it means for
you and your loved ones. For your free copy, contact our office in your country (or
the country nearest you) listed on page 2 of this issue. You can also download this
booklet, along with many others, from our Web site at www.gnmagazine.org.
© 2000-2022 United Church of God, an International Association
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