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A Violent Century of Conflict Begins and Ends
in the Balkans
The Battle for the Balkans: Where Is It Leading?
Why are the Balkans such a trouble spot? What's behind the current conflict?
by Melvin Rhodes
A major conflict of the early 20th
century began with an assassination by a Serbian nationalist in the Balkans. This
century is concluding with a devastating war in the same region. This says a great
deal about the 20th century and bodes ill for the 21st.
But ethnic groups all over the globe are fighting each other, not just in the Balkans.
It's no wonder that schoolchildren get confused. In two world wars the United States
and Britain supported the Serbs, with the help of the Russians and the French, against
Germany and other powers. This time, although the Russians still support Serbia,
the NATO allies are bombing key Serbian targets in an attempt to resolve the ethnic-religious
conflict in Kosovo.
Now Germany stands alongside America, Britain and France in opposition to Serbia.
The Chinese have switched sides, from support of Albania against Yugoslavia 10 years
ago to support of Serbia (the dominant power in Yugoslavia).
Ten years ago it was almost impossible for Americans or Britons to visit Albania,
although neighboring Yugoslavia benefited from a thriving tourist trade that attracted
Western visitors. Today the United States and Britain support the Albanians against
the Yugoslavs.
In the 1990s, in less than one decade, the United States and its Western allies have
gone from opposing Russia under communism to supporting Russia as it tried democracy
to squabbling with Russia over Serbia and other issues. We are talking here only
about a part of Europe. Similar contradictions and confusion reign in other parts
of the world.
Some of the countries involved in these situations have changed their names, which
adds to the confusion.
Can we make sense of what's taking place in the Balkans?
Recent History
These perplexing developments are directly the result of the collapse of communism.
Most of Eastern Europe was communist under the control of the Soviet Union. Yugoslavia,
with no border in common with the Soviet Union, could and did assert its independence
and pursued a more liberal line than other communist nations. President Josip Broz
Tito (1892-1980) was the founder of the postwar communist nation of Yugoslavia and
managed to hold the various ethnic groups in the country together until his death.
Less than 10 years later revolution fired Eastern Europe, sweeping communists from
power or forcing them to alter their philosophies to stay in power. Formerly communist
nations liberalized, giving the people a taste of freedom. That taste only encouraged
demands for greater freedom, particularly as the patchwork quilt of ethnic groups
began disintegrating at the seams.
The Croats were the first to secede from the Yugoslav federation and the Germans
the first to recognize them. In breaking ranks with their Western allies, the government
in Bonn influenced other Western countries to recognize Croatia. War ensued between
the Catholic Croats and the Orthodox Serbs. As the Muslim Bosnians demanded their
independence as well, the war spread. The Albanians in Kosovo also demanded freedom,
and again the conflict spread. Like race, religion also plays a major role in this
part of the world.
But we can't blame all these difficulties on the fall of communism. The fact is that
tensions between the ethnic groups that make up the Balkans go back for hundreds
of years.
Put on hold by centuries of rule under the Ottoman Turks and the Catholic Hapsburgs
of Austria, both empires began collapsing in the 19th century. Balkan tensions resurfaced
as the demands for freedom for each ethnic group intensified. Far from being a melting
pot or even a salad bowl, the divided peoples of the area had mingled for years under
their foreign rulers. Now, suddenly, they found they could no longer live alongside
each another in peace since no clear-cut borders separated the groups.
After World War I the major powers created the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which
attempted to combine these different peoples in one nation. The fragile arrangement
didn't last long. When World War II started, Yugoslavia was invaded by Germany and
came under the rule of the Third Reich (the Nazi regime of 1933-1945). That is when
Tito, born in Croatia and a leader in the resistance movement that was trying to
restore independence, entered the picture. Tito won power when the Germans were defeated
and then ruled the country with a firm but fairly benevolent hand until his death
in 1980. He held together the various nationalities.
Less than 10 years later communist regimes were falling throughout Eastern Europe.
The fall of totalitarianism throughout the region encouraged the rise of nationalist
sentiment as each ethnic group reached for freedom. Finally the Soviet Union fell
apart into its many constituent nations. Yugoslavia began to suffer the same fate.
Bitter wars were fought over Croatia and Bosnia. Then came Kosovo and the current
crisis.
Kosovo's Troubled History
A few months ago Kosovo's population was 90 percent Albanian. The ruling Serbs
constituted only 10 percent of the population. To people in the Western democracies,
it only made sense to give the ethnic Albanians want they wanted: independence in
their own nation.
But the land holds great historical importance to the Serbs. For 200 years leading
up to 1389, Serbia was a powerful kingdom in the Balkans, its might and unity largely
depending--as now--on the personality of its leader. The territory of its last great
king, Stefan Dushan, who ruled from 1331, comprised much of the Balkans. Before he
died, in 1355, this greatest of Serbia's czars was able to describe himself as "emperor
of the Serbs and Greeks, Bulgars and Albanians," also ruling over what are now Bosnia
and Macedonia.
As with President Tito 600 years later, not long after his death the kingdom started
to fall apart, dividing into small principalities and warring clans. The area was
ripe for invasion and foreign domination and began losing territory to the expanding
Islamic empire of the Ottoman Turks. On June 15, 1389, the Ottoman sultan Murad I
defeated the Serbian forces at the Battle of Kosovo. Centuries of foreign domination
began. Kosovo to this day holds a special place in the hearts of all Serbians.
Another complicating factor confuses the mix. At the end of World War II half the
people living in Kosovo were Serbs and the other half Albanians. The birth rate of
the latter has been significantly higher during the last 50 years with the result
that only 10 percent of the people were Serbs when the current conflict started.
To understand the Serbs' perspective, consider how Americans would feel if Hispanics,
outnumbering Anglos in California, decided to secede from the United States and join
Mexico. Put that way, I think we can better understand the dilemma in the Balkans.
The Wider Significance of the Balkan Crisis
But the situation is even more complicated, with repercussions that may echo
for years. In fact, as in 1914, events in the area may permanently change the world.
From all accounts, what happened after NATO forces started bombing Serbia was unexpected.
Certainly America and its allies were unprepared for the eviction of hundreds of
thousands of ethnic Albanians from their homes and the killings of countless others.
Clearly Serbia is determined to rid Kosovo of its Albanian population, leaving the
West to pick up the tab.
At the time of this writing, Serbia appears to be trying to widen the conflict. The
massive influx of Albanian refugees into neighboring Macedonia appears to be intended
to provoke Macedonia's Serbs into action against the encroaching Albanians. The country
of Albania itself, the poorest nation in Europe, has received so many refugees it
is threatened with total collapse. Meanwhile, in Montenegro, a part of the Yugoslav
federation along with Serbia, the arrival of tens of thousands of Albanian refugees
has had the effect of destabilizing its moderate government in favor of one more
sympathetic to Serbia.
Faced with a humanitarian disaster of horrendous proportions, Western governments
offered to take in Albanian refugees "temporarily," flying them to countries far
from the area of conflict. This policy could play into the hands of the Serbs, who
will say that the Albanians have found new homes. Even if NATO succeeds in its efforts
to defeat the Serbs and supervises the return of the ethnic Albanians to their former
homes, so many men have been massacred it is questionable whether the country could
again be a viable entity. It certainly could not be a threat to Serbia again for
many years to come.
The West failed to realize the determination and depth of feeling among the Serbs
for keeping Kosovo in the Yugoslav federation.
Will to Win Lacking
As the conflict ensued, further problems grew apparent. Most Western military
experts concluded that only ground troops will be able stop the expulsion of ethnic
Albanians from Kosovo. Yet President Clinton and British Prime Minister Tony Blair
both said at the start of the military operation against Serbia that there would
be no use of ground troops.
This sent a clear signal to Serbia that the West was halfhearted in its opposition
to Serbian objectives. More than that, it sent a clear message to the rest of the
world that the two English-speaking powers that have fought repeatedly this century
to preserve freedom from tyranny are now reluctant to do so if there is any likelihood
of numerous casualties.
This is not something new. The Persian Gulf War was fought with minimal casualties.
After bombing raids against Iraq, ground troops were sent in. Iraq's soldiers had
little heart to fight and were soon defeated. Allied troops could have gone deeper
into Iraq in an attempt to replace the Saddam Hussein dictatorship with a more moderate
government, but there was a reluctance then to do so out of concern over the possibility
of massive numbers of casualties.
Western nations have also made significant cutbacks in their armed forces as a result
of the end of the Cold War and the perception that serious security threats had ended.
Added to this is another problem: the shortage of people seeking military careers
in an all-volunteer military.
Not one major conflict since World War II has resulted in a clear victory for the
United States or Great Britain. Wars have ended in stalemates with much left unresolved.
Britain's war with Argentina over the Falklands almost 20 years ago and the 1991 Persian Gulf conflict are two examples. Both wars saw a clear military victory, but
the disputes have continued.
We also shouldn't forget that most wars have unintended and unexpected long-term
consequences.
Troubling Implications
If the 19 nations of NATO win the conflict with Serbia, it is likely that continental
Europeans will begin to play a bigger role in future conflicts. For a time public
opinion in Europe favored the use of ground troops, even though such was not the
case in the United States. But the White House, fearful of another Vietnam, openly
expressed its reservations about sending ground troops into the conflict, sending
a message that America is still partially paralyzed by traumatic memories of Vietnam.
Of course, one may take the view that, if NATO had not intervened, the Western alliance
would have been damaged and its political leaders discredited.
How are we to evaluate these matters? To gain a greater understanding of the way
the world works and the role of national groups within it, there is only one basic
source that we can all consult. The Bible is not only a book about personal relationships;
it also concerns itself with the behavior of nations and ethnic groups. Moses wrote
about "When the Most High divided their inheritance to the nations, when He separated
the sons of Adam, He set the boundaries of the peoples . . ." (Deuteronomy 32:8).
Later the apostle Paul spoke of God, who "made from one blood every nation of men
to dwell on all the face of the earth, and has determined their preappointed times
and the boundaries of their dwellings" (Acts 17:26). But historically nations have
not been satisfied to stay within their own territory, taking land belonging to other
countries and peoples and setting up the ethnic disputes we see today.
In the book of Deuteronomy we find a list of blessings and cursings that inevitably
will come to a nation as a direct result of its commitment--or lack thereof--to God
and His laws. Although originally addressed to the nation of Israel, in principle
the message applies across the board to all nations--particularly those who profess
belief in the God of Israel.
Note what God said of the nation that honors and obeys God: " . . . If
you diligently obey the voice of the Lord your God, to observe carefully all His
commandments which I command you today, that the LORD your God will set you high
above all nations of the earth . . . The Lord will cause your enemies who
rise against you to be defeated before your face; they shall come out against you
one way and flee before you seven ways" (Deuteronomy 28:1,7).
Consider His warning to those who disobey: ". . . If you do not obey the
voice of the LORD your God, to observe carefully all His commandments and His statutes
which I command you today, that all these curses will come upon you and overtake
you . . . The Lord will cause you to be defeated before your enemies . . ."
(verses 15,25).
Is it mere coincidence that since World War II, as the American and British people
and others of the same culture and mind-set have turned increasingly from God, the
will and ability to wage and decisively win wars has been lacking? Remember Korea
and Vietnam? "But if you do not obey Me, and do not observe all these commandments
. . . I will break the pride of your power . . ." (Leviticus 26:14,19).
This is the situation we find ourselves in at the dawn of the new millennium.
Recommended Reading
Where is this world headed? Can we know what will happen? Does Bible prophecy
give us any indications? Be sure to request your free copy of You Can Understand
Bible Prophecy. Please contact our office in your country (or the country nearest
you) listed on page 2 of this issue. You may also read or download this booklet from
the literature library of our Web site: www.ucg.org.
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Origin of article "The Balkans: A Violent Century"
Keywords: Balkans Albania Serbia Kosovo
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